Black Friday is supposed to be about great deals. But this year, getting those deals delivered could cost retailers more than they expected.
According to a Reuters report published on October 26, US ground parcel delivery prices are forecast to rise 5.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, while express delivery prices could increase by 13.8%.
The figures come from the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, which tracks shipping costs across data from around 1,800 shippers.
So, what is driving the increase, and what does it mean for retailers and delivery companies preparing for the holiday rush?
1. Rising fuel costs are pushing shipping prices up
Fuel is one of the biggest expenses in transportation. When diesel prices rise, carriers face higher costs for moving parcels between warehouses, distribution centers and customers’ doorsteps.
In the US, average on-highway diesel reached $6.28 per gallon on October 19, according to figures cited by Reuters.
Delivery companies have responded with higher fuel surcharges, adding to retailers’ shipping bills. But fuel isn’t the whole story.
2. Fuel surcharges are becoming a bigger problem
Fuel surcharges are additional fees carriers apply to account for fuel-related costs.
They are often calculated as a percentage of a shipment’s base transportation rate.
At the reported diesel price, UPS’s fuel surcharge was 29.5%, while FedEx’s was 29%, based on their published surcharge tables.
These percentages are fuel surcharges, not the total cost of shipping a parcel.
Reuters also reported that changes in how carriers calculate these charges are contributing to higher costs, beyond the effect of rising diesel prices alone.
For retailers shipping thousands of orders, even small increases per parcel can add up quickly.
3. More orders mean greater pressure on delivery networks
Black Friday is followed by Cyber Monday and the wider Christmas shopping season.
This creates a short period when delivery networks must handle significantly more parcels than usual.
More shipments put pressure on warehouse sorting, vehicle availability, delivery routes and staffing.
When capacity gets stretched, customers may experience longer delivery times, missed delivery windows and weaker communication.
For delivery companies, the challenge is to manage this extra volume while controlling operating costs and maintaining service quality.
A cheaper delivery option is not necessarily better if it leads to failed deliveries, customer complaints or expensive repeat attempts.
4. Can retailers and couriers reduce the impact?
There are practical ways to prepare.
- Plan capacity early: Forecast parcel volumes, arrange staffing and secure vehicle capacity before orders peak.
- Optimize routes: Group deliveries by location and reduce unnecessary mileage and failed delivery attempts.
- Review pricing: Account for fuel surcharges, peak-season fees and other operating expenses before agreeing to delivery rates.
- Improve tracking and communication: Keep customers informed about shipment progress and delays.
- Build reliable delivery partnerships: Work with additional providers where necessary to cover specific routes or handle excess demand.
Retailers may also compare alternative carriers, but switching at the last minute can create operational complications and may affect volume discounts.
5. The real competition is reliable delivery
Higher shipping costs do not automatically mean businesses should charge customers more.
They need to examine where money is being lost, whether routes are efficient and whether their delivery partners can handle peak-season demand.
For logistics companies, Black Friday is an opportunity to win new business.
But securing more deliveries only helps if those jobs can be completed profitably and reliably.
For retailers, the lesson is equally important: a successful promotion is not just about how many orders come in.
It’s also about how efficiently those orders reach customers.
As Black Friday approaches, businesses that plan their logistics early, communicate clearly
and work with the right delivery partners will be better positioned to manage the rush.
Because a great deal loses its appeal when the delivery disappoints.
At Pigee, we’re building a network that connects businesses with courier and logistics providers whose services and coverage fit their delivery needs.
If you run a courier or logistics business, learn more about the Pigee Delivery Partner Network: https://pigeepost.com/delivery-partners/
Note: The cost forecasts and fuel figures in this article relate to the US market. Shipping costs vary by country, carrier, route and service.
